Trump vs Harris! What Will the Presidential Election Debate Be About? —These U.S. Stocks Could Soar!
Guild Holdings Company GHLD | 12.72 12.72 | -0.63% 0.00% Pre |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS | 571.53 591.00 | +1.52% +3.41% Pre |
loanDepot, Inc. Class A LDI | 1.68 1.71 | +3.07% +1.96% Pre |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM | 247.47 250.51 | +1.33% +1.23% Pre |
UWM Holdings Corporation Class A UWMC | 5.81 6.10 | +7.00% +4.99% Pre |
As the U.S. presidential election enters a critical stage, the first televised debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be held at 4 AM Riyadh time on Wednesday, September 11. This debate is expected to have a direct impact on the election outcome, and "Trump trades" and "Harris trades" may once again influence the U.S. stock market.
Current Winning Odds for Trump and Harris
What are the current winning odds for Trump and Harris? The two parties support different economic policies, and behind these differences are investment opportunities. Here's a chart to help you understand:
"Trump vs. Harris" – What will be discussed in the first TV debate?
The two parties have significant differences on issues like the economy, immigration, and democracy. The top five issues swing-state voters care about the most include the economy, immigration, democracy, abortion rights, and healthcare, all of which are expected to be key topics in the debate. As of the latest data, Trump currently leads in support.
Which Stocks Could Be Impacted by "Trump Trades" and "Harris Trades"?
The "Trump trades" and "Harris trades" driven by the U.S. election are essentially market reactions to the anticipated future economic policies of the respective parties, closely tied to their policy platforms. According to analysis by Jefferies:
Tax Policy: Contrasting Approaches for the Wealthy and Big Corporations
- Republicans: Aim to make the TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) permanent, benefiting the wealthy and large corporations.
- Democrats: Plan to offer further tax cuts for working families and demand that "the wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share," proposing to close life insurance tax loopholes, and enhance enforcement against tax evasion by the wealthy and corporations.
Democratic Policy Support | Republican Policy Support |
Guild Holdings Company(GHLD.US) | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.(GS.US) |
loanDepot, Inc. Class A(LDI.US) | JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM.US) |
UWM Holdings Corporation Class A(UWMC.US) | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated(UNH.US) |
Immigration Policy: Mass Deportation vs. Expanding Legal Immigration
- Republicans: Propose the "largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history," including the restoration of Trump-era border policies and the deportation of illegal immigrants.
- Democrats: Advocate for expanding legal immigration pathways while cracking down on human trafficking, aiming to grow support among minority voters.
Democratic Policy Support | Republican Policy Support |
STAG Industrial, Inc.(STAG.US) | AGCO Corporation(AGCO.US) |
AN2 Therapeutics(ANTX.US) | Deere & Company(DE.US) |
Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL.US) | GEO Group Inc(GEO.US) |
Trade Policy: Protectionism vs. Open Trade
- Republicans: Continue the "America First" and protectionist agenda, advocating for basic tariffs on foreign-made goods and revoking Most Favored Nation status for certain countries to better balance trade.
- Democrats: Support global trade under fairer conditions, aiming to promote growth in both the U.S. and global economies.
Democratic Policy Support | Republican Policy Support |
CyberArk Software Ltd.(CYBR.US) | United States Steel Corporation(X.US) |
CrowdStrike Holdings(CRWD.US) | Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.(CLF.US) |
Zscaler(ZS.US) | Mohawk Industries, Inc.(MHK.US) |
Energy Policy: Traditional Energy vs. Clean Energy
- Republicans: Propose making the U.S. the world’s top energy producer by increasing oil and gas production.
- Democrats: Advocate for addressing climate change and investing heavily in clean energy, criticizing Trump's focus on traditional energy at the expense of the environment. They call for the reduction of energy costs and the removal of unfair subsidies for oil and gas.
Democratic Policy Support | Republican Policy Support |
Albemarle Corporation(ALB.US) | Ford Motor Company(F.US) |
First Solar, Inc.(FSLR.US) | Valvoline Inc.(VVV.US) |
Linde plc Ordinary Share(LIN.US) | Valero Energy Corporation(VLO.US) |
Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US) | Marathon Petroleum Corporation(MPC.US) |
Economic Policy: Both Likely to Increase the Deficit
- Democrats: Propose top-down economic growth through increased federal spending on infrastructure, manufacturing, healthcare, and housing.
- Republicans: Advocate for similar growth but call for controlling wasteful federal spending. Given their stronger stance on tax cuts, both parties' economic policies are likely to increase the federal deficit.
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