Tesla Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) latest delivery miss has intensified debate among analysts about the company’s autonomous driving and robotaxi ambitions, with sharp disagreement over its 2025 outlook.

What Happened: James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus, remains bullish despite Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries falling short of expectations. “My long term thesis for 2025 anchors off robots, Robotaxi, and autonomy,” Thorne posted on X, dismissing current market reaction as noise while maintaining his view of Tesla reaching $2 trillion valuation by 2025.

GLJ Research CEO Gordon Johnson strongly countered the optimism surrounding Tesla’s Optimus robot, stating, “They’ll sell approximately 0.00 robots in 2025. They are years behind the competition.” Johnson went on to compare Tesla’s human-controlled robots to outdated technology from “1980s Chuck E. Cheese restaurants.”

You're 100% wrong. They'll sell approximately 0.00 robots in 2025. They are yrs behind the completion. Human-controlled robots (the ones shown at $TSLA's "FSD day") are tech from 1980s Chucky Cheese restaurants.

— Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) January 2, 2025

Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC outlined several potential catalysts, including a new $25,000-$30,000 vehicle launch in the first half of 2025. Black, maintaining a $380 price target, projects Tesla reaching 8.1 million vehicle sales by 2030, representing an 18% global EV market share.

However, Black cautioned about risks, particularly the potential elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit, citing significant sales declines in France and Germany after similar credit removals.

“We estimate 4Q inventory represented approx 12 days of sales outstanding,” Black wrote on X.

$TSLA posted 4Q deliveries of 495.6K +2.3% YoY vs WS consensus of 506.8K. FY'2024 deliveries were 1,789.2K -1.1% YoY. 4Q production was 459.4K. We estimate 4Q inventory represented approx 12 days of sales outstanding. TSLA deployed 11.1 GWh of energy storage products in 4Q,… pic.twitter.com/4QWe3MiuQn

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 2, 2025

With $TSLA now back below my $380 price target I thought it might be helpful to review positive and negative catalysts 6-12 months out. 

Near-term TSLA positive catalysts include: 1/ new $25K-$30K vehicle to be launched in 1H, which we believe will introduce a new form factor… pic.twitter.com/iRohFENT3A

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 2, 2025

The debate comes as Tesla reported 495,570 deliveries in the fourth quarter, missing analyst estimates of 506,763 and marking its first annual sales decline. Tesla shares dropped 6% to $379.28 following the news, though the stock maintained a roughly 62% gain for 2024.

Why It Matters: The sales disappointment comes as Tesla faces growing scrutiny over its Full Self-Driving technology. Truist analyst William Stein recently tested FSD v13, noting it required no interventions during a 15-mile trip but showed concerning behaviors including failure to yield to pedestrians.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management suggests 2025 will be crucial for Tesla’s growth trajectory. “While I’m bracing for a further pullback going into the Jan. 29 earnings, I continue to believe shares are undervalued long-term,” Munster stated.

Price Action: Tesla shares fell 6.08% to $379.28 on Thursday, but rose 1.03% in after-hours trading. The stock gained roughly 62% in 2024, trading between $138.80 and $488.54, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Tesla has a consensus price target of $284.62 from 33 analysts, with a high of $515 and a low of $24.86. The three most recent ratings—Truist Securities, Baird, and Mizuho—average $451.67, suggesting a 17.87% upside.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.