It's been a pretty great week for Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) shareholders, with its shares surging 19% to US$12.20 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$212m were what the analysts expected, Heritage Insurance Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.27 per share, an impressive 1,250% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Heritage Insurance Holdings' dual analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$875.5m in 2025. This would be a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 19% to US$2.00 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$886.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 28% to US$16.00, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.3% per year. So although Heritage Insurance Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Heritage Insurance Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.