Qudian (NYSE:QD) sheds US$78m, company earnings and investor returns have been trending downwards for past five years

qudian -2.42% Post

qudian

QD

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Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But no-one is immune from buying too high. For example the Qudian Inc. (NYSE:QD) share price dropped 69% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 16%.

After losing 16% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Qudian

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Qudian moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

It could be that the revenue decline of 55% per year is viewed as evidence that Qudian is shrinking. That could explain the weak share price.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:QD Earnings and Revenue Growth May 12th 2024

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Qudian shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 67% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 11% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Qudian better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Qudian that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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