The Trump administration has officially imposed 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada. This excludes only Canadian energy, which faces a 10% tariff, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

Despite hopes for industry carve-outs, an administration official confirmed: ‘No Exclusions.’ The tariffs go into effect on Tuesday and could escalate further given retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico.

Constellation Brands Faces The Heaviest Blow

JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira highlights that Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ) is the most exposed name in the sector, with approximately 85% of its consolidated sales tied to Mexican beer imports.

Teixeira estimates that STZ could see a mid-20s% impact to EPS if no action is taken.

However, she believes the company can offset at least 40% of this hit through a mix of pricing adjustments, cost savings, and delaying the impact where possible.

Read Also: Beer Maker Constellation Brands’ Q3 Sales Hit By Subdued Spending; Stock Slides

Brown-Forman, Keurig Dr Pepper, and Others Brace For Headwinds

Teixeira also notes that Brown-Forman Corp (NYSE:BF) (NYSE:B) faces exposure through its tequila portfolio, though she expects the impact to be largely offset by Mexican peso depreciation.

Additionally, Canada's newly announced 25% tariff on American whiskies could create a retaliatory risk, but with Canada representing only 1% of Brown-Forman's sales, Teixeira sees limited downside.

Read Also: Trump Tariffs On Mexico Could Affect Beer: Why Your Modelo, Corona Could Cost More Next Year

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (NASDAQ:KDP) has slight exposure through Electrolit imports from Mexico. Teixeira points out that KDP plans to shift production to Waco, Texas, by 2026, mitigating long-term risk.

Meanwhile, Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) and Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) face minor exposure through Topo Chico and Molson Canadian.

With no exemptions granted and potential escalations looming, beverage giants are forced to adapt. According to Teixeira, Constellation Brands stands to lose the most. Strategic pricing moves and operational adjustments could help mitigate the damage, analysts say.

Investors will be closely watching how these companies respond in the coming months.

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