Redfin Corporation (NASDAQ:RDFN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.4% to US$9.67 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$278m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.28 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Redfin from 17 analysts is for revenues of US$1.15b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 37% to US$0.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.15b and losses of US$0.83 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$8.57, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Redfin analyst has a price target of US$15.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Redfin's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.4% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Redfin is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Redfin going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.