The third-quarter results for Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$3.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.13 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Airbnb is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Airbnb's 42 analysts is for revenues of US$12.2b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 53% to US$4.43. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.57 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$135, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Airbnb at US$195 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$80.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Airbnb's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Airbnb is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Airbnb. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Airbnb analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.