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Weekly Report (December 15 – December 19)
Saudi Market
TASI Technical Analysis:
The TASI 10-day SMA is crossing the 20-day and 30-day SMAs upwards, which may indicate an upward trend in the short term. suggesting that the short-term trend is becoming stronger than the medium-term and long-term trends.
The 20-day SMA is also rising and is approaching the 30-day SMA, with a tendency to exceed it. If the 20-day SMA rises next week and remains above the 30-day SMA, this may indicate a positive medium-term trend.
The 30-day SMA is slightly declining. Although it is currently above the 20-day SMA, it shows a tendency to cross downward, indicating that the long-term trend of the market is negative.
TASI Index Weekly Market Summary (December 15, 2024, to December 19, 2024)
Last week, the TASI index exhibited a downward trend, falling by 1.21%, which reflects a weakness in market confidence. The index reached a high of 12,096 on December 16 before beginning to decline. Overall, 41 companies saw their stock prices rise, while 210 companies experienced a drop in their stock prices.
1. December 22: A pivotal day for Walaa Cooperative Insurance Co. as the final allocation date arrives, drawing significant attention to its capital allocation strategy. Shareholders of Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Co. are set to receive cash dividends, reflecting the company’s financial commitments to its investors. Najran Cement Co. will convene for an Extraordinary General Meeting, where transformative decisions and strategies will be deliberated.
2. December 23: Banque Saudi Fransi will hold an Extraordinary General Meeting, likely to make major corporate decisions. EXTRA will announce the eligibility for cash dividends for the fourth quarter of 2024, and Almoosa Health IPO subscriptions will begin.
3. December 24: NICE ONE's IPO subscription will start
4. December 26: NCLE will begin paying a 21% cash dividend for the 2023/2024 fiscal year, amounting to 2.1 SAR per share.
U.S. Market
S&P500 Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 fell by 3.04%, breaking away from its uptrend as the price has dropped below the lower boundary of the rising channel. This may indicate that the uptrend has ended and the market could be entering a downtrend.
The current support level for the S&P 500 is 5,864 points. If the price falls below this level and remains there for an extended period without any clear signs of a rebound, it may confirm a trend change.
Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its December Monetary Policy Meeting Statement, which lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% - 4.5%. The Federal Reserve anticipates cutting interest rates twice in 2025, each by 25 basis points. However, the dot plot indicates a decrease in the number of expected interest rate cuts for 2025, suggesting a more cautious approach regarding the pace of future cuts. This cautious stance is a primary reason for the market volatility observed last week.
1. Consumer Confidence Index: This index will be released on December 23, reflecting consumer confidence in the economic situation for December, with a previous value of 111.7. Changes in consumer confidence significantly impact the stock market; if confidence rises, it may indicate an increase in consumer spending, potentially driving the stock market upward.
2. New Home Sales: Data for November's new home sales will be released on December 24, with a previous value of 610,000 units. Growth in new home sales may indicate the vitality of the real estate market, which could positively affect individual stocks within the related industry.
3. Christmas Holiday: The US market will be closed on December 25 for the Christmas holiday.
4. Initial Jobless Claims: The number of initial jobless claims as of December 21 will be released on December 26. An increase in initial jobless claims may signal a weak job market, which could negatively impact the stock market.
Cryptocurrency
BTC Technical Analysis:
BTC fell by 4.55% over the past week, with its total market value now at 1.92 trillion USD. The cryptocurrency reached a record high of 108,239 USD on December 17 before beginning its decline. On December 20, the price fell below 95,000 USD.
The primary reason for Bitcoin's decline is the market's expectation of only two interest rate cuts next year, each by 25 basis points. This is lower than the market's initial expectation of four rate cuts. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clarified at a press conference following the monetary policy meeting that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any government plan to hoard Bitcoin.
Crypto Market Cap
The total market value of cryptocurrencies is currently $3.26 trillion, down from $3.6 trillion last week, reflecting an outflow of $0.34 trillion. The market value exhibited an upward trend from December 15 to December 17.
However, on December 17, there was a significant outflow of funds, leading to considerable market fluctuations and an overall downward trend thereafter.
Fear and Greed Index Chart
Fear and Greed Index：
The gray line shows the fluctuation of Bitcoin price. The yellow line shows the change of market sentiment. The current market sentiment value is 62, which is close to neutral market sentiment, and has dropped significantly from 78 last week. It is currently in the "Greed" range. The Fear and Greed index fluctuated between "greed" this week. Fear and Greed is positively correlated with Bitcoin price trends. The extreme fluctuation of market sentiment may indicate the risk of market adjustment. Investors should consider risk management measures.
Disclaimer:
The Information presented above is for information purposes only, which shall not be intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation for an offer to buy any securities or financial instrument or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments or investments. When making a decision about your investments, you should seek the advice of a professional financial adviser and carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in light of your own experience, financial position and investment objectives. The firm and its analysts do not have any material interests or conflicts of interest in any companies mentioned in this report.
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