It's been a good week for Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MMSI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.9% to US$98.80. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$340m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.48 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Merit Medical Systems is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Merit Medical Systems are now predicting revenues of US$1.47b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 23% to US$2.52. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.57 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$110. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Merit Medical Systems analyst has a price target of US$125 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$103. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Merit Medical Systems is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Merit Medical Systems' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Merit Medical Systems' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.3% annually. Merit Medical Systems is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Merit Medical Systems. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Merit Medical Systems analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Merit Medical Systems' balance sheet, and whether we think Merit Medical Systems is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.