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LIVE MARKETS-Broader market on the back foot, but might bulls catch a break?
مؤشر متوسط داو جونز الصناعي -1.30%
مؤشر إس آند بي 500 -1.39%
ناسداك -1.96%
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI | 40813.57 | -1.30% |
S&P 500 INDEX SPX | 5521.52 | -1.39% |
NASDAQ IXIC | 17303.01 | -1.96% |
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BROADER MARKET ON THE BACK FOOT, BUT MIGHT BULLS CATCH A BREAK?
The NYSE composite .NYA has now fallen as much as 7.3% from its November 29 record intraday high, and 6.5% from its November 29 record closing high.
Indeed, the broader market has been on back foot, and this is leading to concerns that, at a minimum, major indexes will see full-fledged corrections across the board.
That said, one measure of the NYSE's internal strength, the McClellan Summation, has now essentially reached a support level, suggesting the potential that the market may be on the verge of a surprise recovery:
The McClellan Summation is a running sum of the McClellan Oscillator. The McClellan Oscillator is a closely followed breadth/momentum measure based on advancing and declining issues.
The Summation peaked on September 30 at +4,324. It then diverged into the NYA's November peak.
On Monday, the Summation ended at -2,031, or a fresh low back to mid-November 2023.
The support line from this measure's October 2022 trough is now around -2,125.
Of note, Summation lows in October 2022 and October 2023 were V-bottoms - after protracted declines, the measure suddenly vaulted to the upside, reclaimed its 10-day moving average, and trended higher.
Thus, bulls will now want to see the support line act as a floor, leading to an upward reversal in the Summation. A rising Summation can coincide with a return of broader market strength and underpin a renewed NYA advance.
A Summation break of the support line can suggest the potential for much greater NYA internal damage. The Summation's October 2023 low was at -4,308, and its October 2022 trough was at -6,178.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
BONDS ENTER FIFTH YEAR OF BEAR MARKET: TIME TO BUY? - CLICK HERE
UK ON INVESTORS' RADAR DESPITE NEW YEAR SELL-OFF - MS - CLICK HERE
WALL STREET POISED TO BUY MORE EUROPEAN BANK SHARES - UBS - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN SHARES RISE AFTER U.S. TARIFF PLAN TOUTED - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES JUMP, U.S. TARIFF PLANS IN FOCUS - CLICK HERE
BONNE CHANCE, BAYROU - CLICK HERE
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
